Phil Steele: Hawaiʻi ‘Finally Hitting Its Stride,’ Sees Rainbow Warriors as Mountain West Title Contender

Coming off a nine-win season, Hawaiʻi enters 2026 with increased expectations, and longtime college football analyst Phil Steele believes the Rainbow Warriors have what it takes to contend for a Mountain West championship.

Appearing on Hawaiʻi Sports Radio Network’s Wake Up in The Den with Ku’ulei Agbayani, the longtime publisher of Phil Steele’s College Football Preview said Timmy Chang has built one of the most stable programs in the Group of Six, pointing to the Rainbow Warriors’ player retention, experienced quarterback play and favorable conference schedule as reasons Hawaiʻi is a legitimate Mountain West championship contender.

“I think he’s doing a tremendous job,” Steele said of Chang. “He’s not relying on bringing in 50 new guys in the transfer portal every year. He’s retaining his players while adding impact pieces where needed.”

Steele noted Hawaiʻi ranks among the nation’s better “homegrown” programs, a rarity outside the Power Four conferences. He believes that continuity has fueled the program’s steady climb from three wins in Chang’s first season to last year’s 9-4 campaign.

Confidence Remains Despite Ashlock Uncertainty

One of the biggest questions entering the season is the availability of preseason All-Mountain West receiver Pofele Ashlock.

Even if Hawaiʻi is without one of its top offensive weapons early in the season, Steele said he isn’t changing his outlook.

Instead, he pointed to the Rainbow Warriors’ history of developing receivers, the additions of transfers Audric Harris and Davin Alves, an experienced offensive line and veteran quarterback Micah Alejado as reasons he still believes Hawaiʻi has enough offensive firepower to compete for a conference title.

Defense Expected to Continue Improving

Steele was equally complimentary of defensive coordinator Dennis Thurman, crediting him for the dramatic improvement Hawaiʻi has made over the past two seasons.

Although the Rainbow Warriors must replace several contributors along the defensive front, Steele believes the coaching staff successfully addressed that need through the transfer portal by targeting experienced players.

He also highlighted Elijah Palmer as an NFL-caliber defensive back and praised the additions in the secondary, saying Hawaiʻi should once again field one of the conference’s stronger defenses.

Stanford Opener Presents Opportunity

Hawaiʻi opens the season on the road at Stanford in Week Zero, a game Steele views as a “pick ‘em”.

While acknowledging the Rainbow Warriors have historically struggled away from home under Chang, Steele believes the timing works in Hawaiʻi’s favor as Stanford begins its first season under a new coaching staff.

“I think Hawaiʻi’s got a shot at winning the opener, even on the road,” Steele said.

Why the Transfer Portal Feels Different This Year

Beyond Hawaiʻi, Steele also discussed how the absence of a second spring transfer portal window changed the landscape across college football.

After speaking with nearly every FBS head coach, Steele said many told him this spring felt more like building an actual team because players weren’t constantly worried about leaving or being replaced.

He believes that added stability should result in better football across the country this fall.

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