Hawai’i gets chance to throw wild Mountain West standings into chaos

HONOLULU – Fret not, one who worries.

Even after last Saturday’s brutal 45-38 loss at San Jose State, the dream season is not over.

Yes, even after giving up over 600 yards of total offense to the Spartans, you can believe still in the Rainbow Warrior defense. It’s the same unit that leads the entire Mountain West Conference in quarterback sacks for league play (12 in five games) and overall (22 in eight games).

That doesn’t even get into the fact that UH’s offense has clicked back in time nine years, becoming the first Rainbow Warrior team since 2016 to post 30+ points in four straight games. Redshirt freshman QB Micah Alejado is averaging more than 300 yards passing and has thrown three or more TD passes in each of those outings while the offense as a whole has been going for half-a-grand each weekend for the past month.

Heck, not even the University of Hawai’i’s hopes at a bid into the Mountain West Championship game have gone fishing yet. Needing one of the league’s top two spots to participate in the title game, the Rainbow Warriors sit in a tie for third place with four weeks left.

Why should your hopes at the ‘Bows flirting with the summit of the Mountain West in the final year as we know the conference as it is be gone if they’re still fighting and kicking?

Hawai’i (6-3, 3-2 Mountain West) welcomes in San Diego State (7-1, 4-0 Mountain West) on Saturday, hoping to wash away the taste of an uncharacteristic performance on the road with an upset in the islands of the top team in the conference through 10 weeks of action.

“Great attention to detail and discipline,” said head coach Timmy Chang when asked about the first practice back after last week’s loss. “We’re going to need it with a really good opponent, San Diego State, coming in this week. One-loss team, very excited for a sold-out crowd and our guys, they feel the last one, and we quickly had to move on so we can get ready and get up for this one.”

Hawaii QB Micah Alejado scans the field during a home game for the Rainbow Warriors. | Photo credit: Michael Lasquero, HSRN

The Aztecs, who have taken five straight meetings against UH, come in as the hottest team in the conference with a six-game win streak. Led by the best defense in the Mountain West and a balanced offensive attack of junior QB Jayden Denegal and junior RB Lucky Sutton, SDSU hasn’t lost in two months.

Sutton has torched defenses all season but kicked it up another level in competition against Mountain West rivals. Over four conference games, the 6-foot-1, 225-lb running back has broken the century mark three times and found the end zone at least once in every contest. Last weekend against Wyoming, he set a new career high with 158 rushing yards as he helped the Aztecs get off to the third 4-0 start to conference play in program history.

It’s not hard to see why he’s already eclipsed 800 rushing yards in only eight games when the bruising back has punished defenses to the tune of more than five yards per carry this season. Sutton also has eight touchdowns, finding the end zone in all but two games – the Aztecs’ lone loss against Washington State and an ugly 6-3 victory against future Mountain West member Northern Illinois.

Denegal, who showed up on Wednesday’s availability report as questionable for the game against UH, won’t blow you away with his numbers this season (63.3% comp, 176.9 pass ypg, 8 TD-5 INT) but helps fit together the Aztec offense with a dose of deep shots each night.

The SDSU defense is the meal ticket, though.

Coming off a win versus Wyoming in which they forced four turnovers for the first time in more than two years, SDSU’s conference-best scoring defense (10.25 points per game allowed) will take on the biggest test of the year so far in UH’s offense that ranks second in Mountain West play with 35.6 points per game.

The Aztecs’ defense has turned it up another gear over the team’s six-game winning streak, holding opponents to 7.3 points per game over the half-dozen outings. In the 32 total quarters SDSU has played, opponents have scored in just nine of them.

If Hawai’i can revert back to form defensively from before the San Jose State game and keep the offense clicking to put up points in at least three quarters, an upset of the Aztecs is on the table – something that would throw the Mountain West standings into chaos with three weeks remaining.

Should the Rainbow Warriors run the table and finish the season at 9-3 overall and 6-2 in the conference, the door could be open for a seat in the Mountain West Championship.

Winning out would provide Hawai’i with the head-to-head tiebreaker over San Diego State, UNLV and Utah State, who all have two or less losses in conference play heading into Week 11.

San Jose State and Fresno State each have a pair of Mountain West losses on the resume and hold the head-to-head tiebreaker over the Rainbow Warriors but end the season playing each other which would provide one with a third loss to drop out of the running. The Spartans also have to play at SDSU the week before while the Bulldogs host Utah State.

New Mexico could be the wild card, sitting at 3-2 in conference play with a bye week before ending the year home against Colorado State, at Air Force and home against San Diego State. If the Lobos are tied with the Rainbow Warriors for the final spot in the conference championship game, the tiebreak goes to the team with the better record against the highest-placed teams in the standings. (MWC Tiebreak Procedure, 4.)

Boise State always plays into the equation as well as they sit at 4-1 in conference and 6-3 overall, though they face question marks regarding the health of starting QB Maddux Madsen and their own matchup against the Aztecs next weekend at Snapdragon Stadium.

All of that word vomit to say, even after last weekend’s metaphorical rainy day on the Rainbow Warrior Mountain West Championship parade, Hawai’i remains firmly in the mix for a bid to the conference title game with a win this weekend.

It’s easier said than done, of course.

But if it was easy, everyone would do it.